BNP Paribas - Global Markets - Research

Mexican rates daily comments

Fri, 24 May 2013 21:42:00 GMT

Very bad price action continues in Mex rates, with similar story from the past days, coming off 3-5bps in the morning on a weak U.R. in Mexico –coming at 5.04% vs. 4.67% expected- though a 1% weake...

LATAM Trading Commentaries | Rates Commentary | 24 May 13 - 22:42 | k

FX Daily Strategist Asia: Watch the Nikkei and JGBs for FX direction early in the week

Fri, 24 May 2013 21:06:00 GMT

Watch the Nikkei and JGBs for FX direction early in the week The CHF and JPY posted strong rallies on Friday as risk trades funded in these currencies came under pressure. The prospect of a UK and US bank holiday likely generated some nervousness that stress in JGBs and Japanese equities on Mond.....

Vassili Serebriakov,Daniel Katzive | FX Research | 24 May 13 - 22:06 | 102k

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Colombia Daily Economic Spotlight: Colombia Daily Economic Spotlight

Fri, 24 May 2013 13:27:00 GMT

COLOMBIA On FX local market, yesterday USDCOP gapped almost 10 pesos following latam FX price action and closed at 1866, weakest level since January 2012. We continue to have a long USD view, but keeping in mind a possible pullback. We continue to hear a rumour that a local pension fund is not ro.....

Economics/FX/Interest Rate Teams | FX Research | 24 May 13 - 14:27 | 77k

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CEEMEA Sniper: 24 May 2013

Fri, 24 May 2013 13:17:00 GMT

Market views • The BoI is likely to deliver another 25bp rate cut to prevent a further appreciation of the ILS. The 5s10s sector is too steep for the ‘new normality’, although the 2s5s segment could continue to steepen. • The NBH’s decision to cut rates to 4.50% is likely to be a non-event a...

FX/Interest Rate Teams | FX Research | 24 May 13 - 14:17 | 983k

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FX Strategy Flash: Raising the Stop on Long NOKSEK

Fri, 24 May 2013 12:55:00 GMT

- We opt to raise the stop on the long NOKSEK recommendation to 1.1280 in order to protect profits. - We continue to like the recommendation with all our indicators suggesting further upside potential to 1.1600 and possibly 1.1800. - The trade recommendation has a current profit of 2.40%. We a...

Kiran Kowshik,James Hellawell | FX Research | 24 May 13 - 13:55 | 93k

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FX Daily Strategist US: Some risk of USD long liquidation given long weekend

Fri, 24 May 2013 11:55:00 GMT

RE-SEND: With correct calendar. Some risk of USD long liquidation given long weekend; But USD upside intact beyond The USD has given back some of its recent gains on Thursday, with a sharp correction in the Nikkei and USDJPY generating a generalized liquidation of stretched dollar longs. We th...

Kiran Kowshik | FX Research | 24 May 13 - 12:55 | 176k

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FX Daily Strategist US:  Some risk of USD long liquidation given long weekend; But USD upside intact beyond

Fri, 24 May 2013 10:29:00 GMT

Some risk of USD long liquidation given long weekend; But USD upside intact beyond The USD has given back some of its recent gains on Thursday, with a sharp correction in the Nikkei and USDJPY generating a generalized liquidation of stretched dollar longs. We think this could continue for today f.....

Kiran Kowshik | FX Research | 24 May 13 - 11:29 | 178k

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Local Markets Daily Strategist: Local Markets Daily Strategist

Fri, 24 May 2013 07:41:00 GMT

Inflows not enough of cover anymore Rates across the CEEMEA region continue to sell-off despite the limited uptick in core rates and the mixed performance of EM currencies. ZAR rates led the way as all expectations of a rate cut were priced out following the stagflation concerns expressed the by .....

FX/Interest Rate Teams | FX Research | 24 May 13 - 08:41 | 219k

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FX Daily Strategist Europe: FX Daily Strategist Europe Edition - Bernanke tapers scope for USD downside, we turn more bullish

Fri, 24 May 2013 06:34:00 GMT

- Bernanke tapers scope for USD downside, we turn more bullish on the USD We view that the weakness in the USD on Thursday was driven by an unwinding of long USD positions (one of the largest positions according to BNP Paribas FX Positioning Analysis) in line with corrections in equity markets. T.....

Michael Sneyd,Daniel Katzive,Vassili Serebriakov | FX Research | 24 May 13 - 07:34 | 341k

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FX Daily Strategist Asia: USD upside momentum to resume

Thu, 23 May 2013 21:09:00 GMT

USD upside momentum to resume The USD gave back some of its recent gains on Thursday, with a sharp correction in the Nikkei and USDJPY generating a generalized liquidation of stretched dollar longs. Today sees the release of April durable goods orders, which should show continued weakness in the .....

Vassili Serebriakov | FX Research | 23 May 13 - 22:09 | 84k

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Mexican rates daily comments

Thu, 23 May 2013 21:02:00 GMT

Another tough day in Mex rates, opening 2-3bps tighter following risk-off mood in Asia that had US rates trading some 3bps at the opening, though some S/L were triggered in Asia after yesterday’s s...

LATAM Trading Commentaries | Rates Commentary | 23 May 13 - 22:02 | k

Global FX Plus (New FX Weekly): Bernanke Curbs Our USD Bearishness

Thu, 23 May 2013 19:35:00 GMT

Current FX Recommendations • Long AUDNZD at 1.2020, targeting 1.2500, stop loss 1.1845 • Long EURCHF at 1.2305, targeting 1.2800, stop loss 1.1970 • Long NOKSEK at 1.1175, targeting 1.1600, stop loss 1.1025 • Long AUDJPY via 3m call spread • Long 3m 0.8850 EURGBP digital call @17...

FX Team | FX Research | 23 May 13 - 20:35 | 602k

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FX Volatility Focus: Positioning for GBP weakness on BoE asset purchases resumption

Thu, 23 May 2013 17:22:00 GMT

1. BNPP expects resumption of BoE asset purchases in August, triggering further idiosyncratic GBP weakness. 2. Front end EURGBP and GBPUSD vols appear fairly priced relative to delivered vols, 25 delta vols are expensive relative to ATMs and front end vols (ie 3m) are expensive relative to medium.....

Vasilis Koutsaftis | FX Research | 23 May 13 - 18:22 | 239k

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Colombia Daily Economic Spotlight: Colombia Daily Economic Spotlight

Thu, 23 May 2013 12:54:00 GMT

COLOMBIA On FX local market, USDCOP falls 0,50% to a 16 month low (1856) . We saw commodities producers selling USD above 1850 more aggressive. On IR side, Payers led the way COP rates.No comments so far from co-directors signaling they are worried by Q1 data as they already had it discounted ...

Economics/FX/Interest Rate Teams | FX Research | 23 May 13 - 13:54 | 76k

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FX Daily Strategist US: An unwinding of positioning dominates FX markets

Thu, 23 May 2013 10:36:00 GMT

An unwinding of positioning dominates FX markets The price action in G10 FX markets has corresponded with an unwind of positioning in response to Bernanke’s testimony, Wednesday’s release of FOMC minutes and the disappointing China HSBC PMI for May, which entered contractionary territory for the .....

Kiran Kowshik,Michael Sneyd,Steven Saywell | FX Research | 23 May 13 - 11:36 | 157k

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Local Markets Daily Strategist: Local Markets Daily Strategist

Thu, 23 May 2013 07:28:00 GMT

SARB’s move ruled out and priced out The CPI in South Africa remained within the target but the monthly growth was faster than expected 0.4% m/m, which took the annual inflation to 5.9% y/y (Chart 1). The increase in the price of non-durable goods is the most significant, but this is hardly surpr.....

FX/Interest Rate Teams | Rates Research | 23 May 13 - 08:28 | 167k

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FX Daily Strategist Europe: USD and JPY could receive safe-haven bid today

Thu, 23 May 2013 07:01:00 GMT

USD and JPY could receive safe-haven bid today The USD should receive a safe haven bid driven by re-rating of Chinese growth prospects and Bernanke's Q/A comments. Overnight, China’s HSBC PMI for May contracted for the first time in seven months. Following Bernanke’s Q&A session yesterday, the S&.....

Kiran Kowshik | FX Research | 23 May 13 - 08:01 | 190k

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Asia Strategy Weekly: Asia Strategy Weekly, 23 May 2013

Thu, 23 May 2013 05:16:00 GMT

(See attached file: Asia Strategy Weekly 23 May 2013.pdf) Correlations Breakdown, Changing Paradigms What’s crucial next week: The BoT meeting is the key event (29 May) where the market has priced in a 25bp rate cut, against our expectation. Chinese official PMI (1 June), Indian Q1 GDP (31 May...

Rohit Garg,Jasmine Poh,Chin Loo Thio,Mirza Baig,Yii Hui Wong | FX Research | 23 May 13 - 06:16 | 471k

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Mexican rates daily comments

Wed, 22 May 2013 21:39:00 GMT

What a day in Mex rates! We started on further frenzy receiving after yesterday’s EoD inflows into Mbonos and after today’s very weak retail sales number in Mexico coming at -2.4% -vs. the 0.3% con...

LATAM Trading Commentaries | FX Commentary | 22 May 13 - 22:39 | k

FX Daily Strategist Asia: The US dollar is increasingly data dependent

Wed, 22 May 2013 21:08:00 GMT

• The US dollar is increasingly data dependent The message from Fed Chairman Bernanke and the FOMC minutes published Wednesday was clear: the FOMC is not planning to withdraw policy accommodation quickly but evidence of continued improvement in labour markets could prompt the committee to begin .....

Daniel Katzive | FX Research | 22 May 13 - 22:08 | 116k

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Colombia Daily Economic Spotlight: Colombia Daily Economic Spotlight

Wed, 22 May 2013 15:48:00 GMT

COLOMBIA Finance Minister Mauricio Cardenas announced yesterday that the government will propose, at the next MPC meeting, to extend the USD 750mn monthly purchasing program until the end of the year. The current reserve accumulation program, implemented in February, is set to expire at the end o.....

Economics/FX/Interest Rate Teams | Rates Research | 22 May 13 - 16:48 | 76k

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FX Daily Strategist US: USD to weaken if Bernanke maintains this week’s theme of dovish Fed speak

Wed, 22 May 2013 11:30:00 GMT

- USD to weaken if Bernanke maintains this week’s theme of dovish Fed speak Chairman Bernanke testifies today at 14 GMT (10am ET) amid heightened focus on Fed exit planning. The USD has given back some ground this week, predominantly against the EUR, as Fed voters have consistently signalled a re.....

Kiran Kowshik,Michael Sneyd,Steven Saywell | FX Research | 22 May 13 - 12:30 | 179k

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Asia Strategy Desknote: Asia Strategy Desknote: Correlations breakdown, changing paradigms

Wed, 22 May 2013 09:58:00 GMT

(See attached file: Asia Strategy Desknote_Correlations breakdown, changing paradigms , 22 May 2013.pdf) Correlations breakdown, changing paradigms Correlations between Asia FX and equities have broken down, and long-term rate differentials are moving in favour of US. This reflects a rotation ...

Rohit Garg,Jasmine Poh,Chin Loo Thio,Mirza Baig,Yii Hui Wong | Rates Research | 22 May 13 - 10:58 | 188k

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Local Markets Daily Strategist: Local Markets Daily Strategist

Wed, 22 May 2013 07:40:00 GMT

South Africa in focus again with a sharply depreciating currency The negative balance of payment dynamics in South Africa have been compounded by renewed tensions in the mining sector and sell-off in precious metals. The ZAR has been registering new record lows against the USD everyday of this we.....

FX/Interest Rate Teams | FX Research | 22 May 13 - 08:40 | 182k

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FX Daily Strategist Europe: FX Daily Strategist Europe Edition, 22 May 2013

Wed, 22 May 2013 06:18:00 GMT

Bernanke takes the stage Chairman Bernanke testifies today at 14 GMT (10am ET) amid heightened focus on Fed exit planning. The USD has given back ground so far this week as Fed voters have consistently signalled a reluctance to consider tapering of asset purchases. After Chicago Fed President Ev.....

Jasmine Poh | FX Research | 22 May 13 - 07:18 | 186k

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FX Daily Strategist Asia: Bernanke takes the stage

Tue, 21 May 2013 22:08:00 GMT

• Bernanke takes the stage Chairman Bernanke testifies today at 14 GMT (10am ET) amid heightened focus on Fed exit planning. The USD has given back ground so far this week as Fed voters have consistently signalled a reluctance to consider tapering of asset purchases. After Chicago Fed President .....

Vassili Serebriakov,Daniel Katzive | FX Research | 21 May 13 - 23:08 | 124k

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Mexican rates daily comments

Tue, 21 May 2013 20:56:00 GMT

Very volatile day in Mex rates today, with some very poor price action at the opening, seeing couple of big foreign dealers paying relatively desperate in the long end TIIE IRS and we traded in S/L...

LATAM Trading Commentaries | FX Commentary | 21 May 13 - 21:56 | k

Latam Sniper: LATAM Sniper - 21 May 2013

Tue, 21 May 2013 20:43:00 GMT

In this week’s LATAM Sniper Market View * Latam currencies suffered on the back of the USD strengthening across the globe. We continue to favour the RV trade in the region: long MXNCLP. * In Chille, although BCCh kept rates unchanged, we expect the minutes to sound somewhat dovish on the ba...

Thiago Alday,Diego Donadio | Rates Research | 21 May 13 - 21:43 | 309k

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Colombia Daily Economic Spotlight: Colombia Daily Economic Spotlight

Tue, 21 May 2013 14:05:00 GMT

COLOMBIA Electricity demand accelerated in April to 6.3% y/y from 1.6% in March. Year-to-date electricity demand rose 3.9% y/y, up from 3.4% during the same period last year. April data (electricity demand, building permits and consumer confidence) thus far point to accelerating activity in Q2. ...

Economics/FX/Interest Rate Teams | Rates Research | 21 May 13 - 15:05 | 77k

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FX Quant Insight: BNP Paribas STEER™ is supportive of both EURUSD and GBPUSD

Tue, 21 May 2013 13:56:00 GMT

• AUDUSD and NZDUSD continue to appear cheap at around three z-scores below their STEER, providing scope for a rebound. • BNP Paribas STEER is supportive of both EURUSD and GBPUSD moving higher. • STEER continues to indicate that the strength of global equities should correspond with EURSEK...

James Hellawell,Michael Sneyd | FX Research | 21 May 13 - 14:56 | 198k

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